The latest weather report from NOAA for middle tennessee

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE RETURNING TO THE MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MO
AT MID-AFTERNOON…BUT WAS HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WAS
LOCATED OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CAUSING A BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. CONVECTION HAS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST AR…THE
MO BOOTHEEL..AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHWEST TN AS THE REMNANTS OF
ERIN SKIRT THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING TONIGHT
AS WHAT MUCH REMAINS OF ERIN PULLS EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
MID-SOUTH. GUSTY WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE BIG STORY FOR TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE THE RETURN OF
THE HEAT. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE MID-SOUTH FROM
THE EAST. AT 18Z WEDNESDAY…THE GFS FORECASTS A 500 MB HIGH OF
5980 M CENTERED NEAR THE NORTH MS / NORTH AL BORDER. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 22 DEGREES CELSIUS. THUS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE PEAKING DURING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MAXIMUM VALUES AROUND 101 OR 102 DEGREES. THINK HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TUESDAY AND
WILL NOT ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR TUESDAY ATTM…BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFTS
WILL EXAMINE LATER DATA TO RE-EVALUATE THIS. HEAT INDEX ADVISORIES
WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY…AND MAY BE NECESSARY
SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX READINGS WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES.

THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THE RIDGE ALOFT WEAKENING BY SUNDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. FOR NOW
WILL CONTINUE WITH 20 PERCENT POPS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. IF LATER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FRONT MOVING INTO THE
AREA…POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY DURING
THIS TIME. HOWEVER…NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS SEEN
ANYTIME SOON.

&&

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